WX: UK: Severe WX Watch – Sun 10th June 2012

ISSUED: 1500UTC SUNDAY 10TH JUNE 2012 (GJ/SM)

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:
CENTRAL ENGLAND
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ENGLAND
SOUTH-EASTERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1500UTC SUNDAY 10TH JUNE UNTIL 2359UTC MONDAY 11TH JUNE 2012

SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE TRAVELLING THROUGH ENGLISH CHANNEL AND STALLING OCCLUSION.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
HEAVY RAIN…SURFACE FLOODING

DISCUSSION:
GOOD AND CONSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OF A SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE TRAVELLING THROUGH THE ENGLISH CHANNEL PUSHING OCCLUDED FRONTS ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN ENGLAND. HIGHER THETA-E VALUES ARE ALSO DRAWN UP FROM THE NEAR CONTINENT AND BEGINS TO DESTABILISE ON ARRIVAL TO THE REGIONS COVERED IN THIS WATCH. PW VALUES OF BETWEEN 2.5CM TO ALMOST 3CM ARE PROMOTING HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH OCCLUDED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WATCH AREA BECOMING SLOW MOVING/STALLED IN THE SLACK AIR-FLOW.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF A COUPLE OF HUNDRED J/KG ELEVATED MLCAPE WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, COUPLED WITH SOME MODEST LLS/DLS, THIS IS DEEMED A LOWER RISK IN COMPARISON TO THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE RAINFALL AND ACCUMULATIONS IN PARTICULAR.
THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED IN FUTURE.

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